It's every chocoholic's nightmare: according to recent reports, we are eating chocolates more than the farmers can produce, and it may not be long before there's going to be a significant deficit.
No other than Bloomberg and two of the biggest chocolate manufacturers in the world, Barry Callebaut and Mars Inc., have sent us the warning. Last year, we consumed extra 70,000 metric tons. If this goes on, 6 years from now, we will be 1 million metric tons short.
But why is this happening? There are many potential reasons, including drought, pestilence, climate change, disease of both crops and humans (like Ebola), and even politics and violence in the world.
Also, more farmers, who used to grow cacao, are shifting to other types of produce such as corn because of the frequency of the yield: while cocoa trees take as long as two years before they start to generate fruit and a decade before the farmers can figure out the high-performing ones, corn, meanwhile, grows very fast it can generate three corn generations in one cocoa tree year.
The bottom line is should this forecast come true, the price of chocolates will surely skyrocket, which means fewer people can afford them.
This isn't the first time that we've heard of such potential shortage, however. In 2011, for example, Ivory Coast, where more than 35% of the world's supply of cocoa comes from, experienced a serious political unrest that dwindled the number of farmers certified under the cocoa fair trade agreement. Back then, they predicted that by 2014, there will be a massive shortage of chocolates, which, of course, didn't happen. Most probably, you're eating chocolates right now.
There are also other ways to deal with the lack of proper supply. Those who have a lot of use for chocolates including bakers or cake artists can combine pure chocolate with other ingredients such as other artificial flavors. Cadburry, on the other hand, has already reduced the size of its Dairy Milk by as much as 10%. Manufacturers can also explore other flavors or combinations that are complementary to cocoa especially nuts.
