This is indeed the biggest Ebola outbreak in history. As of the moment, more than 5,000 people across three countries in West Africa, namely, Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone, have already been infected by the disease. Almost 3,000 had already died. Add to that, the disease poses a huge threat on the economy, politics, and security of the affected countries.
But if the recent forecast of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is to be believed, then the major health problem can only get way worse.
Last Tuesday, September 22, 2014, the CDC released its new statistical model for the current Ebola epidemic in West Africa. Using the data they had gathered in the previous month, they projected that cases can go as high as 21,000 before the month ends and almost 1.5 million in January 2015-as long as no necessary interventions are in place. This projection covers only Sierra Leone and Liberia. Guinea's Ebola outbreak was so massive they cannot immediately generate figures to base on.
The figures may be grim, but experts say they are actually close or in line with the projections of other agencies. The World Health Organization, for example, estimated that by November 2, there will be over 20,000 new cases if the situation doesn't improve.
Worse, the figures may be deemed conservative since there are still many undocumented cases.
However, it's also possible that the epidemic will reach its near end on January 20, 2015, provided that at least 70% of infected patients are contained to prevent further virus transmission. Funerals should also be fully secured to ensure no one touches the dead infected bodies.
Early this month, President Barack Obama pledged its biggest CDC aid to emergency response overseas, sending around 3,000 troops and training workers on the ground regularly. They will also be setting up health care facilities with at least a hundred beds each to accommodate more patients. Other countries such as France, Australia, China, and India have also contributed or expressed their commitment to help in fighting against Ebola.
