Using data from variables such as airline traffic and disease spread patterns, scientists are predicting that there is a 75% chance that the Ebola virus could be imported into France by the end of October, and a 50% chance that it could occur in Britain by the same date. These numbers are based on assumptions that air traffic to and from these two countries remains at full capacity. If, for any reason, travel is reduced in these areas by 80%, which researchers think could be a possibility given that many airlines are now restricting flights to the Ebola-stricken countries in West Africa, the risk for Friends still remains at 25% and 15% for Britain.
Experts who have been keeping track of the epidemic have issued the report, appealing to the countries in question to employ stricter precautionary measures. At the moment, that I believe the viruses already claimed the lives of over 3,400 people across the West African region, with more than 7,000 people infected so far. Other countries including Senegal, Nigeria, and the United States have also reported cases of the deadly virus that have been imported into their territories because of people traveling from the affected countries.
According to the study, France could most likely be the next country on the list to see a positive case of the Ebola virus because of French delegates and speakers who are traveling to and from some of the worst hit countries like Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea. The Heathrow airport in Britain is also a prime location for importing the disease because it is one of the biggest and busiest travel hubs in the world. Each of these countries have also had one citizen infected with the disease, brought back home, and treated at local hospitals. The travel patterns in these two countries suggest that a traveler, or multiple travelers, could potentially bring the Ebola virus into Europe without being aware of it.
Prof. Derek Gatherer from the Lancaster University in Britain said that, "If this thing continues to rage on in West Africa and in deed gets worse, as some people have predicted, then it's only a matter of time before one of these cases and get on the plane to Europe."
